sustainability - practical challenges

A couple weeks ago, I asked "How do we make that transition and change the mindset on quality of life that is not synonymous with material wealth?"

The short answer is that I do not know. The longer answer focuses on why this question is important in the first place. I touched on some of those points in that post a couple weeks back. The economy is built on growth. We can grow through efficiency and we can grow through numbers. Efficiency leads to per capita gains. Numbers come from population growth. We will always be able to extract more efficiency from a system, but it becomes increasingly harder to. I'm not going to say that there is some definite limit that we get ever closer to. It's more like a log curve that keeps going up but more slowly over time.

As I sit here and mull this point over, I cannot help but realize that the economy as we generally regard it in its semi-free form is dead. And not just dead because the bailout lunacy has killed it. But dead because it is not conducive to long-term sustainability. Given the significant vested interest, and a very disproportionate one at that, that people who are generally in power have in the status quo, the transition away from the economic system we know and love (or hate at this moment) will be long, painful, and frought with a great deal of waste. Has that process already started, perhaps been pushed along by this current crisis? Possibly, but probably not in any significant way. The expected long-term growth in the economy allows that transition process to pushed out. Immigration patterns for the United States will allow this debate to be delayed by 30-50 years. But we need to take a good look at Japan and Western Europe for how they handle economic life without population growth.

Sustainability. Yes, that's what this is supposed to be about. We need to address the point eventually, even if it isn't in our lifetimes. Think about everything you do in a typical day. Actually, think about the things you do in an atypical day, because those days are often the most resource intense. Things like travel, make large purchases, build/demolish something, etc. Now consider everything you consume during those days. Food, energy, water, air, money (not a real resource but somewhat part of the discussion), time, napkins, light bulbs, skin lotion, flatpack furniture, windshield wiper fluid, etc. Where did they all come from? What were they made of and where did those thigns come from? How did they get consumed? Where will they come from tomorrow? (Note: 'The 24 hr Wal-Mart' is not an acceptable answer to that last question.)

Energy is the big sticking point. It should be pretty apparent that many types of raw energy materials are not easily replaced. Like most items extracted from the ground, more can be discovered, we can get more efficiency from our systems, but ultimately, oil and gas products are a one and done affair. (Why yes, I do work in that industry. And that's as far as that point will be addressed right now.) Unlike metals and other mined products, we cannot recycle oil and gas. The long-term outlook for energy should be crystal clear. All energy will need to come from sources that are renewable or are mispronounced as nucular. In the very long-term outlook, the nuclear option runs out as well. The long-term application for non-renewable energy sources will have to end up in very niche applications with limited usage and need. (The mined goods side is still an area of concern. However, given sufficient energy supplies and transmutation technology, we can sweep those concerns under the magic technology rug.)

The renewable energy requirement means everything we get needs to come from the sun in some way shape or form. Solar is obvious. Wind is moderately obvious. Hydroelectric is obvious if wind is obvious. Geothermal is less obvious, but we need the sun for that to occur, but not because it is bright, but because it is heavy. Plant-based oil extraction should follow from solar pretty easily. The problem with many of these sources is that they are not very portable. This is why oil has been such a great transportation fuel: excellent energy density and easy to handle. The transition away from petroleum based transport fuels will eventually be one of the biggest challenges. It will essentially require the car to shift from almost every currnet model (you too Prius) to some Volt-like vehicles. However, this doesn't address our long-haul transport needs like ships, trains, and trucks.

Perhaps the biggest challenge will be to get people to buy-in before a catastrophic crisis occurs.